From September 2018 to August 2019 I wrote a daily diary on the Eurusd for www.thearmchairtrader.com. The aim was to set out each day the levels I was looking to trade together with a fundamental overview and technical analysis of the likely direction of the instrument. I also wanted an independent record of performance - important for any trading coach - see below.
The performance noted above was for the first 6 months of 2019 which I´ve shown here to indicate how taking a set methodological approach to trading the instrument paid off.
I posted the levels each morning to readers highlighting exact entries where to short or go long and we stuck to -13 stop and +25 1st target.
Once the stop was hit we would wait for the next level although on most days we didn´t get a second bite. If we hit the 1st target we generally closed the trade. Occasionally I updated the readers during the day if I felt we should hold for more and or to take partial profit or (in exceptional circumstances) amend the stop. This accounts for results which are not in multiples of 13 or 25.
I think the results speak for themselves.
Trading with a conservative risk strategy on a model basis (set the trade in the morning and come back at the end of the day) aimed at traders who could not be at their screens full time we only had a few weeks where we made no money or posted a small loss but had 0 months in drawdown.
In total we achieved a cumulative total of over 500 pips using the model ´set and go´ strategy.
The max column shows results where the trades were managed intraday and posted significantly better returns for traders who could be at their screens.
As we progressed from January the ATR on the Eurusd started to narrow and the instrument went into a tighter consolidation phase as conditions in the market and context started to change. At the June point I decided conditions were not as good to trade the Eurusd using this method and we ended the exercise. That is not to suggest this type of method can´t or won´t continue working, more that, at the time, there were better opportunities to be had elsewhere.
A few examples of the type of trades I look for everyday are shown below.
NB: you´ll note that I don´t use any indicators, preferring to read the chart in real time and use simple S & R for the vast majority of my trading.
I like simplicity in everything and when it comes to trading I believe it pays not to try and over complicate things when there is absolutely no need.
Once you´ve studied how price action unfolds time after time and you know what repetitive set ups you´re looking for it comes down to seeing and executing.