** New Trading Guide Book**How to Trade the Dax40 (or any indx mkt). To get the best out of what I post here read this.
Dax40. 08 08 2022. (click on charts to expand)
I wasn't around for this day so nothing to post
Dax40. 09 08 2022. (click on charts to expand)
I said yesterday that we live in hope for the morrow but unfortunately we didn´t get much today - even fewer decent set ups than yesterday in reality. We were scratching around for scalps again. There were a few to be had as noted but 1st test of zones were a bit of a washout - either losers of BE. While the scalps did set up at the levels we would expect and noted in the kick off chart it was slow and choppy. I had a loser on the 1st test of 570 zone but ended flat for the day through mini scalps later. It´s summer and we are waiting for the US CPI tomorrow so we can´t expect much. Nevertheless it was a scrappy day at best. So I´ll say it again - we live in hope for the morrow:)
Dax40. 10 08 2022. (click on charts to expand)
Decent trading day today from a set ups pov. We had a strong push up just after the opening dip which some of you may have caught as a "spring" which was clearest as a pin bar on the 15m chart. Personally I missed it as the more usual MO at the open it to get only a few points dip under or over the pre mkt range and then the reverse. It was a bit deep for me but in hindsight was a great trade lol. Can´t win them all eh :). That pushed up straight into our R zone and we got a 1st test at 1 (click on After Chart) for around 30pts. Not much but if you took it you should at least have scratched at BE or bagged a few as a scalp. I mentioned that scalp opps were likely before data. Nothing to do then till after the data spike where we could have gone short at the gap close (2) or better still waited for a pullback where we could have gone long at the halfback or the 625 broken R zone now acting as S and which was also the 61.8% at 3. Around 70 - 80 pts back up to the top from that one. All in all lets say there were around 100 points available from straightforward moves in the RTH session.
BTW the morning dip came right to the D1 "double top" level 455. Unfortunately I hadn´t clocked this in time - my bad compadres. I will stand in the corner and recite "I must be better" 100 times :).
Dax40. 11 08 2022. (click on charts to expand)
Another decent day in terms of fairly typical price action set ups.
1 - Prior to the RTH open for any one sharp enough - straight into D1 R at 800 for a good +100
2 - Post open dip pullback continuation trade. Again you had to be quick with your fibs (make it part of your opening routine). Halfback and Open level held it - good for 60 / 70 available points
3 - Ascending wedge, rounding bottom, TL and the hourly chart showing no closes just long wicks below 690. Good for 40 / 50. I tweeted this set up.
4 - Spike into Open level and (50%) and it was intraday R structure. It was a news spike (US PPI) so a tricky one to catch. If you did good for around 40 / 50 pts.
5 - PML scalp entry post US open. Turned out to be a good scalp for around 70 pts.
All in there were around 300 pts available. As you know I´m counting roughly the maximum points available from the set ups. These are not my results and I doubt anyone catches them all. They are noted to show how typical set ups combined with S & R and a good read of how the pa unfolds provides plenty of opportunity. Just one a day can be all it takes :).
Dax40. 12 08 2022. (click on charts to expand)
Pre Kick off Plans / Thoughts
Todays kick off chart noted above. The ES pulled back yesterday after taking out good R levels after a good run up and a break out after US CPI data Weds. This was also supported by below expectations data in PPI on Thursday and is getting some to start to think inflation may have peaked which suggests the Fed me be less hawkish on int rates going forward. Whether we get more pullback or consolidation remains to be seen but the US charts are bullish for the moment - no point calling a top just yet. Dax has followed this trend and remains bullish above 13450 (ish) which imo is a key D1 level.
For today 13630 the 50% pullback of the run up from Weds looks pivotal. 13800 is the key to more upside. Above 800 we have little structure on D1 to provide clean S & R and the levels on H1 are not as easy to eyeball in the first instance. We could get some quick moves above here if we can break. On the downside the 13580 is a key level being the blast off point for the US CPI data should we break below 630. This blast off point is pivotal for all US indices too. Whatever we get, reaction is preferable to prediction in day trading not because we shouldn´t "have a view" or plan but that prediction can tend to build a bias to what we think and want rather than what we see and the pa is telling us. Lets see what we get today - just follow the pa:). UoM cons sentiment, a known important data point for Powell and the Fed, is up at 4.00 CET.
Post Match Report
Open drive gave us a pull back continuation entry for a long at the halfback and pmh. Tweeted this. I scalped it but it went on for an available 80 pts.
Next up was a short at main R good for 50.
Alternative short in the spike above and fast reverse - 2 entries either on top or when it had come back below the zone. Good for around 80 in tot. NB: note RSI divergence.
Next trade was long from 720 again (which I took - again). We had a pin-bar, pmh and I think if you pull a fib from pml to the hod you´d find its halfback again. Good for 70 / 80 (btw I closed at 780 this time).
All in another decent session with typical set ups providing us with good opps. Around 250 ish points in total.