Dax40 Weeks Review 07 11 22 - 11 11 22

NB: you can get all this prior to the Dax and S&P open each day by signing up as a site member see here. The weekly summary below is useful post session information for educational purposes but having the levels, charts, daily trade plan and set ups BEFORE the kick off is where the money is made!


Dax40. Monday 07 11 22 Pre RTH Kick Off Notes





Overnight Range Gap down on futs - 13490 - 500 to close. Data Lagarde speaks at 8:40 UK but nothing of great importance on the scheduled data front until Thursdays US CPI prints. Overview Dax rallied hard on Friday pushing up to our 13550 level before taking a breather and S&P defended the 3700 level on cash late in the session - a level we have been using as a Support base all last week. The top of this cycle up on Dax has a target of 13570 which we nearly tagged on Friday just short of the cash 200DMA (@13636). 570 will be a key level for Dax this week possibly for today. Break above and holding opens up the next key HTF level, the 200DMA at 636 and the August highs at @ 13950. We have posted 5 weekly green candles and again closed above the yearly TL which now acts as S for any dip as does the 13020 level. Another point to watch is the FOMC spike high which Dax moved above with some force Friday although the S&P is still well below its spike high. The pa looks to be supporting buy the dip mode at present. We are in the most bullish part of the year in the run up to year end so equities have this in their favour. All eyes this week will be on the US CPI print on Thursday watching for any further clues as to how the Fed might act at their Dec mtg. Remember the "Fed pivot" (reducing the pace of rate hikes) is top of mind although last weeks FOMC presser didn't give any impression that they are looking to press hard on any rates increase breaks. Indeed Powell did his best to dispel any let up and made it clear they remained focused solely on bringing inflation under control at all costs. His comment about higher terminal rates and ´smaller hikes for longer´ dampened any enthusiasm going into the announcement. That's all macro context and for today we need to focus on where our better entries are on Dax and later on SPX. ​ Todays Trade Plan For today the 13550 - 70 level is the target for longs and could be a key failure level. A fast push and fail here could indicate a key turn in the bullish momentum as could a push higher up to the 200 DMA at around 13636. Its all about these key levels above as we start the week. Any acceptance above opens up a further push up with a major target of @13950. To kick off the day:

  • I will be watching for a futs gap close at around 13490 - 500 for a quick scalp short.

  • 13550 Friday high could give us a simple double top short entry as could a look above to tag the 13570 (key level) and fail.

  • Breaking above 13570 opens up the cash 200DMA at 13636 which could also be a short entry if we get failure pa on the smaller time frames (M1 & M5)

  • Any dip down to down to S2 will likely be defended for a long opp. as could a shallower dip to our S1 zone for today at around 13370 - 80.

  • Any deeper dive to S3 is an automatic long entry for me. NB: Note the orange diagonal lines indicating the last 2 measured moves on the additional chart.

Levels S1 - 13368 - 13386 S2 - 13250 - 13270 S3 - 13000 - 13025 ​ R1 - 13550 - 13570 R2 - 13615 - 13635 (note the 200DMA) R3 - 13765 - 13785 ​ The US

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Todays S&P chart with key levels above. 3760 - 70 is 1st support and 3730 is the key support for today. If holds higher levels are in play. If breaks 3700 is gateway support which must hold for this rally to continue. Note the pink line at @ 3720 also. Targets higher are 3847 / 50 and 3863. ​ RTH Post Session Review

​ We had a classic dip below the pre mkt low and long right at the open. My guess is many traders will have missed it as it was a fast trade and if you weren't ready for it would have been "uncomfortable" / difficult to get on board. I didn't catch it btw. We did however get a similar classic pullback to enter at the 38.2% fib. If you were on board either of these two trades entries it was a question of managing your exit as Dax pushed all the way up to R2. There were a couple of scalp entries thereafter but by far the best trade of the day was long from or just after the open. ​ Dax40. Tuesday 08 11 2022. Pre RTH Kick Off Notes

Overnight Range Narrow range between 13500 - 600 Data No important data scheduled for today and US CPI´s on Thursday is the key event for this week. NB: mid term elections in US today.Overview Dax continued its upward trajectory yesterday making a high just short of the cash 200 DMA. 13570 was tested and broken and we put in another green day on the index. Nothing technically yet to suggest this run wont continue with the next target being the 200DMA at around 13630 with an old gap above at 13697. The next decent R level / target is at 13785 the 18 August high. Below, 13400 held yesterday and will be important as a base support for today. ​ S&P was a little slower off the mark than Dax but it also pushed higher and is just above the 3800 level as I write. It bounced perfectly from the area I noted yesterday at 3765 which held throughout the session. ​ Technically there's isn't much to stop us continuing higher. We have a strong sequence of HH´s and HL´s behind us, clear support levels below and clear targets above. Given this recent pa I will continue to look for BTD entries. ​ NB: there will be no S&P chart for today as I have an appointment this afternoon. Todays Trade Plan

  • My first level of interest below is 13500 which held price after the open yesterday. I will watch pa here for longs or breakdown. Similarly watch around 13450 for long entries.

  • S1 13400 yesterdays low is my base support for today and I will be looking to buy any move down to here on a 1st test basis

  • Any break below S1 and holding would be a good pullback entry short although I will also be watching for false break entries long at this zone

  • Any move down to S2 & S3 will be automatic buys for me on a 1st test basis to continue the trend higher

  • My first target for any longs will the 200 DMA at around 13630 and the cash gap at just below 13700 with 13785 a potential sell level along with our R2 zone for today.

  • As always I will watch the pa for regular scalp entries.

Levels S1 - 13380 - 13400 S2 - 13250 - 13270 S3 - 13000 - 13025 ​ R1 - 13615 - 13630 R2 - 13765 - 13785 R3 - 13820 - 13840 NB: 13954 - 13975 (HTF August Highs)

The US No charts or plan for today as out of the office. I did tweet a quick chart however with the levels. RTH Post Session Review

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Few regular opportunities / entries to join the long from the open if you didn't catch it first time. The plan above however was pretty much spot on!

  • My first level of interest below is 13500 which held price after the open yesterday. I will watch pa here for longs or breakdown. Similarly watch around 13450 for long entries.

  • My first target for any longs will the 200 DMA at around 13630 and the cash gap at just below 13700 with 13785 a potential sell level along with our R2 zone for today.

​​ Dax40. Weds 09 11 2022. Pre RTH Kick Off Notes

Overnight Range Narrow @50 point range balancing below yesterdays pcc. looks like a gap down open - inventory correction possible first order of the day ​ Data No important scheduled data for today. Overview Our plan yesterday was basically to look for dips to buy up to the cash 200 DMA first and the gap at around 13700. This played out very well although it was slow in the morning with little opportunity to buy after the open dip and then became volatile during the later US session following the pa on S&P. My feel for today as we wait for US CPI´s tomorrow is that we could be in for more two way volatility also noting we have the US mid term elections. Dax has moved a long way up in a general bear market environment and we have moved past 13570 HTF level with 13950 the next key HTF above. S&P is having a much harder task following suit and Dax is relatively stronger. Where we go next into the end of the week clearly rests on the CPI print tomorrow. Technically Dax has put in a V shaped reversal on the D1 chart which resolves / targets 13950, the August highs. We have tested and yesterday closed above the cash DMA200 which sits at around 13620 while the S&P is still well below its corresponding 200DMA. On the basis that we can only go with what we see on the charts and the immediately preceding pa my plan today is to continue looking for dips to buy at the levels I have on the chart until / unless pa proves me wrong. If we get to the 13950 HTF level that would be an automatic short on a 1st test. That's still @300 points higher though and as we come into the data tomorrow I would expect increased volatility with bi-directional moves particularly as we move into the US session this afternoon. Todays Trade Plan

  • The past 2 days have see moves from the open which defended close proximity supports and moved higher although in a slow grinding fashion. If we continue in the same vein I will be watching S1 for automatic longs and higher at our first S zone of interest at around 13570, the spike low in yesterdays US session and the D1 high HTF support. Holding and acceptance above 13570 the D1 high suggest higher prices.

  • If Dax continues to push the next target area is R1 at around 13780 and R2 at 13820.

  • If we get up to our R zones I will be looking for short opps although neither are automatic shorts (i.e. limit sells) unless pa indicates.

  • If we get a failure and holding below 13570 I will be watching for pullbacks to this level for short opportunities down to S1.

  • Watch for regular scalp opps as pa evolves.

Levels S1 - 13485 - 13505 S2 - 13380 - 13400 S3 - 13250 - 13270 ​ R1 - 13765 - 13785 R2 - 13820 - 13840 R3 - 13950 - 13975 The US

S&P had a pretty volatile session yesterday before closing back above 3800. As we move closer to the CPI prints tomorrow we could be in for more of the same today. My core support for today is 3766 if we get a dip below 3800 with 3730 below. When trading S&P I adopt a slightly different approach than on Dax as in my experience it pays better to just trade the levels and concentrate less on scalps. I will watch for scalp fades at pre market levels but prefer to trade at the pre set target levels. RTH Post Session Review

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Low opportunity day trading within 120 point range. The first planned opportunity came at the 13570 zone for a long fade. ​

  • If we continue in the same vein I will be watching S1 for automatic longs and higher at our first S zone of interest at around 13570, the spike low in yesterdays US session and the D1 high HTF support. Holding and acceptance above 13570 the D1 high suggest higher prices.

​ The second trade was a regular scalp trade at the pcc gap close. ​ Taking both these trades conservatively netted + 100 points obviously depending oin where exactly entered and closed and whether you scaled out as I did on the former. ​ We are currently waiting for the US CPI data out tomorrow where I expect we will get much more movement in prices on both Dax and S&P. ​​ Dax40. Thurs 10 11 2022. Pre RTH Kick Off Notes

Overnight Range Another narrow range overnight session to kick off CPI day. 13570 is currently holding as support with the last two days forming the high points of the range. Currently @50 pts below pcc so potential gap fill inventory correction to start off if it stays under. Data All eyes on US CPI at 13:30 Uk time. Overview Dax closed on the index above the 200DMA but failed to expand its weeks range yesterday with 13700 holding the highs and 13570 the lows - a clear range to start the day. As we´ve been saying all week, today is a big data day with US CPI´s. The print will be eagerly digested by market participants for clues as to whether the Fed will, as still anticipated, pivot in Dec. and come in with a lower hike of 50bps ending the trend of successive 75bps rate rises. If CPI comes in hot (higher than expectations) it will do nothing to help equities climb the wall of worry they started to climb last month and the rally could fail significantly. Dax has been out performing its US counterparts for the past 2 weeks but if the S&P starts to go down on the print its likely Dax will follow. If CPIs come in lower we are highly likely to get some impetus behind stocks and indices in the US will kick to the upside. However, expect volatility on the data and as always don't get trapped by any initial moves usually in the first hour(s). Also note the US doesn't open until an hour after the print so the initial moves need to be confirmed by RTH participants. ​ The last CPI print on Oct 13th resulted in S&P spiking down around 150 points before rallying around 190 points. CPI is the hottest data ticket in town atm together with FOMC so we should get some clear moves one way or the other. ​ For Dax, should it start to fall we have some clear downside levels to work with. 13570 is range support and lower at 13500 is the first zone of support with Tuesdays spike low and S2 around 13400 - 420. Failure under S2 is a warning for longs. Above we have a clear HTF target at 13950 wityh a couple of staging posts at R1 & 2 on the way. Todays Trade Plan My plan to today is to watch for early moves prior to the release. Its impossible to know what could happen thereafter so no point trying to predict an outcome. We either press on up or we fall. We could always also get an inconclusive print which will further muddy the waters and create more uncertainty. In that case I´d be more inclined for Dax to continue its upward trajectory to try and clear its 13950 target. But we have to wait and see. ​

  • Watch 13570 in the first instance. Holding provides a long opp, breaking below with some momentum provides a short opp on a retest from the underside.

​​

  • Watch for regular scalps particularly a gap close and or a test of the 13700 range edge for a short.

  • Other than that I will be closely watching the pa and waiting for the moves post the data and the US open.

Levels S1 - 13480 - 13500 S2 - 13400 - 13420 S3 - 13250 - 13270 ​ R1 - 13680 - 13700 R2 - 13765 - 13785 R3 - 13820 - 13840 R4 - 13950 - 13975 The US

Levels for S&P as we head into the CPI print. 3700 and 3667 are important supports below and 3800 needs to be regained for the rally to head higher. All rests on the print today but its also important to remember that we have one more CPI print before the next rate decision and other NFP. So what happens today whilst key for the short term is not the final decision point for the Fed. Could set the tone though as I retweeted earlier. ​ ​ RTH Post Session Review

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​An eventful day! The action started out pretty much as we had planned with the first clear trade a fade of the gap close as per the notes above. We then had a pullback trade to the pmh and the 61.8 if anyone was interested. We were then ranging until the data unleashed an almighty rip of around 450 points in a couple of minutes! If you chanced it and were long into the print - whoa - big winner :). If you were like me flat into the data there was no way to jump on that as it was vertical take off with no respite. In fact my broker along with IG had no prices for a time it gap slipped up that quickly taking out our R4 13950 target in the blink of an eye. I didn't get another trade on Dax after the data as there was no decent pullback entry either once the dust had settled. Anyhow, tomorrow should be interesting as we´ve now pushed up over 13950 - 14000 which will be a key support. Whether todays "animal spirits" are as aggressive once we´ve had to ti me digest this "re pricing " jump remains to be seen . As a rule of thumb all news moves tend to get retraced to a greater or lesser degree - lets see if this one does. Have a good one :) ​ ​ Dax40. Friday 11 11 2022. Pre RTH Kick Off Notes

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Overnight Range Price continued to react to the CPI push from yesterday and put in another 150 pt move up from the futs open with the low right on the pcc. We are now around + 600 points up from the data release! ​ Data US UoM Consumer sentiment at 15:00 UK ​ Overview I said we might expect some volatility on the CPI data print yesterday and it didn't disappoint in that regard! The data came in below expectations in all measures and the market was fast to react to some good news on the inflation front. News moves tend to retrace and while this looks like a strong break out I still suspect normal rules will apply at some stage and we will get some move back down to at least re test support at 13950 - 14000. Whether we get such a move today we don't know - we need to just have it in mind that retraces are the usual order of play after such moves. Dax is currently at resistance as I write at just below 14300 and I will be looking for a gap close inventory correction on the open if not before down to pcc at 14146. US indices made similar strong moves on the data and S&P is up @225 pts from the print. The Fed pivot looks to be firmly in participants minds and technically we can see room for much higher prices on S&P ultimately to the August highs at around 4320. With such a move behind us the HTF picture looks much more bullish than of late but these moves need to hold for higher otherwise we could still ultimately fail. Todays Trade Plan

  • After such a big break to the upside I am on the lookout for inventory correction moves down to pcc where we could get our first reaction for a 1st test long.

  • Note we have an old cash gap at 14199 (and one higher at 14446)

  • If we push lower our S3 zone around 13950 - 13975 & 14000 would be good areas for 1st test long opportunities - note the halfback of the data move at around 13980 ​

  • Any move under 13950 watch for a false or real breaks to trade accordingly (see my book for examples)

Levels S1 - 14170 - 14190 S2 - 14090 - 14115 S3 - 13950 - 13975 ​ R1 - 14295 - 14320 R2 - 14440 - 14458 R3 - 14610 - 14633 ​ The US

​ Levels as per chart. Clear supports with a fast area above to the next clear R / target at the 200DMA @4080. 1st level of S for today at around 3955. RTH Post Session Review

Dax basically held its S1 support all day which was a very shallow pullback indicating a strong bull market. As such the only opportunity was to attempt long once we saw the pa evolve and noted S1 acting as a barrier for lower. Alternatively you could have tried an open level short as noted which is a regular scalp entry. S&P reacted from the 3955 which we had noted from the above chart and essentially emulated Dax using this area as support for the day in order to make new highs and close just short of the 4000 level. Personally I found Spx easier to trade today and had a couple of long scalps from the 55 zone - particularly note the two m5 dojis around 17:00 UK. Nothing to shout home about but at least some reward for a tight ranging "hard penny" days trading :) ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ On The Level: Daily Trade Plans & Set Ups



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