Dax40 Weeks Review 14 11 22 - 18 11 22

NB: you can get all this prior to the Dax and S&P open each day by signing up as a site member see here. The weekly summary below is useful post session information for educational purposes but having the levels, charts, daily trade plan and set ups BEFORE the kick off is where the money is made!


Dax40. Monday 14 11 22 Pre RTH Kick Off Notes Please note as mentioned last week I wont be able to post any pre RTH session notes this morning as I will be away from my desk. Should be ok from tomorrow / Weds but I´ll keep you posted. Overnight RangeDataOverviewTodays Trade Plan ​ ​ Levels ​ ​

The US RTH Post Session Review ​Dax40. Tuesday 15 11 2022. Pre RTH Kick Off Notes Going to be tied up most of today as noted but here are a few quick points and chart with levels:

  • Tight 80 point overnight range with 14250 holding the lows yesterday

  • Dax is maintaining its push above 13950 - 14000 and pushed through the next level of D1 HTF R yesterday at 14325 and nearly closed the cash gap at 14446 showing more signs of bullish pa than bearish.

  • Next HTF level to the upside is 14626 and then 14712

  • We have 3 gaps above and 2 below now and its likely one side will be tested today.

  • We are still in BTD mode . looking at S&P its next clear target to the upside is the 200DMA at @ 4062 and if it keeps pushing higher towards it its likely to keep Dax on the front foot.

  • If I were trading today I´d be looking to buy dips while ever it works with S1 as a 1st test long and any move down to 13950 is a buy for me.

  • German Zew data out at 10:00 UK with US PPI at 13:30

Overnight Range Data Overview ​​ Todays Trade Plan ​​ Levels


The US RTH Post Session Review

Dax40. Weds 16 11 2022. Pre RTH Kick Off Notes

​​ Overnight Range Strong pre mkt push up from around 05:00 UK this morning possibly on news that it appears the Russian missile that landed in Poland was downed by the Ukrainians and therefore "accidental" which reduces pressure on the NATO response. Expect strong words! We are back to the middle of yesterdays range. ​ Data US Retail Sales at 13:30 UK. Unscheduled Geopolitical news. Overview Morning compadres - back at my desk for some of the day. ​ Markets continue to climb on the back of the better news regarding inflation in the US, a possible seasonal sentiment shift and the hope that the Fed "pivot" will result in lower rate rises going forward. This has seen the S&P push up around 290 points since last Thursday and Dax up around 800 points in the same period. Buy the dip has been the main modus operandi with Dax stepping up on the back of shallow pullbacks since the 3rd of this month with the big surge last week on CPI´s. Until we see a change we have to go with the charts although we are a over stretched right now on D1 RSI and a sharper pullback could materialize at any time - something we have to bear in mind. However until we see weakness we need to keep buying dips. Dax has pushed up from its 200DMA and has a clear HTF target up at around 14700 with 830 and 900 just above. To the downside we have 13950 the most recent HTF high - now support - which remains untested. Any pullback to here would be an automatic 1st test long. Dax is relatively stronger than US markets which could also signal a sharp pullback is in store at some point as could any significant escalation in the Ukraine Russia conflict. Missiles landing on Polish soil yesterday evening (accidentally or otherwise) will not help lift sentiment as participants await any response from NATO. Dax dropped around 250 points on the news but pared losses into the close. S&P is balancing around the 4000 mark with its DMA200 up at around 4060 which is an obvious target and possible better place to pullback from. Todays Trade Plan

  • Cash gaps below and above with Dax roughly midway between them as I write - expect one side to be tested today.

  • I will be looking to continue in BTD mode until pa breaks and holds below key support which in this case for me would be the CPI spike high at 14100.

  • I will be watching yesterdays RTH high 14446 for a 1st test short scalp and a pullback entry to scalp long ​

  • Any move to S2 will be a 1st test long

  • Watch out for breaks and false breaks at S&R zones

  • Watch for regular scalp entries after the RTH kick off from the open level, pml & pmh, double tops and bottoms etc.

Levels S1 - 14175 - 14195 S2 - 14000 - 14025 S3 - 13950 - 13975 ​ R1 - 14440 - 14460 R2 - 14610 - 14630 R3 - 14800 - 14830

The US

Clear levels on S&P while it balances around 4000 after the near 300 point rally from last week. 3950 - 4000 is the battleground for today. Break above and we could push to 4080. Break below and hold and 3900 comes into play. I would be an automatic buyer at 3900 as it is a key level and the halfback of the leg up from 3760. RTH Post Session Review

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Dax was basically a very low opportunity day for day traders with nothing much to trigger long or short. The best trade of the day was a pcc gap close fade right at the open which many may have missed. After that we had a half back pullback to join the short and that was pretty much it. Its really only to be expected as we´ve moved long a way in a short space of time so we can anticipate some balancing before we get another decent leg. Which way it will be is to be seen as yet. The daily chart has 4 D1 candles side by side with wicks both above and below - not a very good sign for long continuation until we´ve had a decent pullback but we shall see. Tomorrow will hopefully give us more to do! ​


Dax40. Thurs 17 11 2022. Pre RTH Kick Off Notes

Overnight Range Narrow range again with a push up from 06:00 UK similar to yesterday. Data US Philly Fed at 13:30 and some Fed speakers throughout the afternoon. Nothing scheduled which could really act as a catalyst to break out either up or down. Overview There is not much to say other than its all about the weeks range and whether we break out - up or down. The longer we continue to base at these levels the more likely we are to get a next leg move. Compression leads to expansion. Looking at the D1, the series of inconclusive candles doesn't look very bullish on the face of it with the last 3 being neutral or long legged pin bars whatever you prefer to call them and an inside bar yesterday. The case for the upside is the Fed "pivot", better news on inflation (in the US) and sessional sentiment. The case for a move down is the continuing conflict in Europe (and all its associated risks on energy etc.), recession threats and some further signs of global weakness. If I just look at the chart though my conclusion would be that we are going to get a retracement of some sort particularly after such a big move and the series of shallow pullback moves of late. However we could also get another push before we get the slip. Subsequently as a day trader I can only go on what I see and while ever it lasts I will be looking to buy dips until / unless support start to fail. Note also the triangle forming on the H1. Todays Trade Plan

  • Focus on the edges of the weeks range for 1st tests long or short

  • Watch for breaks and false breaks at these edges (see my book for examples of pa)

  • We have gaps at the edges of this range so it seems likely we will test one side today - which adds a bit more weight to 1st test scalp entries.

  • Watch pa in the US session as whatever transpires there will give the Dax a lead

  • Levels remain the same as yesterday

  • If we continue to trade the range look for regular scalps - gap close, double tops and bottoms, pullbacks within the range and open level fades from above and or below

Levels S1 - 14175 - 14195 S2 - 14000 - 14025 S3 - 13950 - 13975 ​ R1 - 14440 - 14460 R2 - 14610 - 14630 R3 - 14800 - 14830 ​ ​

The US ​ Sorry but I was not able to be at my desk this afternoon ​ RTH Post Session Review ​ Sorry but I was not able to be at my desk this afternoon ​​ Dax40. Friday 18 11 2022. Pre RTH Kick Off Notes

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Overnight Range Another narrow range as its been all week - 50 points only as I write. Data Nothing of any importance scheduled. Opex today ​ Overview What can I say - its pretty much exactly the same as for yesterday and all week for that matter. We are in a well defined range with 14125 at the bottom and 14450 at the top. We continue to trade the range and await a break attempt either up or down. While this is frustrating it does nevertheless still provide day trade opportunity. We can easily see the boundaries and all we have to do is to wait for one side to be tested and watch for breaks and false break pa. If we get a run to the edges today its pretty clear what we need to do. We fade 1st tests and or we wait to trade either of the two break scenarios. If we break, watch for a decisive move and trade a pullback to the edge to go with the direction of the break or we watch for pa coming back into the range and once it breaks back inside we go with that. Either option is worth a 1R risk. In the meantime we trade regular scalp set ups! It would be a bit easier if we had a catalyst scheduled news-wise but unfortunately we don't. This may seem a bit tedious but it is normal for pa to be stuck in a range. We have been treated to some very one side pa of late so its only to be expected we get some consolidation. Patience is the order of the day! Todays Trade Plan (pretty much the same as yesterday)

  • Focus on the edges of the weeks range for 1st tests long or short

  • Watch for breaks and false breaks at these edges (see my book for examples of pa)

  • We have a gap at the top edge of this range (the low one at 14146 was just missed yesterday - so I am assuming its already been tested and the top gap at 14446 is perhaps now more likely due a test)

  • Watch pa in the US session as whatever transpires there will give the Dax a lead

  • If we continue to trade the range look for regular scalps - gap close fade, double tops and bottoms, pmh & pml fades, pullbacks within the range, yesterday RTH highs and lows and open level fades from above and or below.

Levels S1 - 14125 - 14150 S2 - 13950 - 13975 S3 - there is no real S until we get back down to 13700 so watch the minor levels. ​ R1 - 14440 - 14460 R2 - 14610 - 14633 R3 - 14800 - 14830 ​ NB: I know some traders can be a little less comfortable trading a zone rather than a precise level. I share the sentiment - it is easier to pull the trigger at a precise price level. However the reason I provide zones is to give us the best possible opportunity to catch the better trades given that pa is just not that straightforward and precise. In one sense zones can give us more real time information because they provide a little more "vibration" room around a key area for price to be tested. If we get acceptance either above or below its (in my eyes ) easier to see what price is trying to do around an zone rather than purely at one price point. If you do "struggle" with zone entries, one method may be to set limits at the top, mid point and bottom of the zone to spread your size. Trading is as much an art as a science. If it were a precise science it would be easy right - and its not :). I will think about this more and see if there is a way I can suggest that either the top or the bottom of a zone has an edge for entries. nothing springs to mind right now but I´ll give it more thought.

The US Nothing posted as away from my desk ​​ RTH Post Session Review



I wrote this morning:

  • Focus on the edges of the weeks range for 1st tests long or short (Correct)

  • We have a gap at the top edge of this range (the low one at 14146 was just missed yesterday - so I am assuming its already been tested and the top gap at 14446 is perhaps now more likely due a test)

  • If we continue to trade the range look for regular scalps - gap close fade, double tops and bottoms, pmh & pml fades, pullbacks within the range, yesterday RTH highs and lows and open level fades from above and or below.

What transpired was more of the same essentially - we continued to trade the range set all week with no attempt at breaks either above or below. The first opportunity was at the open with a wick below the pml which could have been taken for a regular long scalp entry but perhaps the better / easier entry for most traders was the pullback to the 50% / pmh long entry noted as the second opportunity on the chart above. We then had a couple of opportunities to fade the top edge as noted but not for much. ​ Other than that we got no lead from the US session as it also traded in a narrow day range. This range will get tested (and broken) at some point which could be next week in the lead up to the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday which is a typically bullish period. Until we do - we go with what we see - i.e. buying dips as our overall context and trading scalps in the pre defined range! Have a good weekend :). ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​

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