Dax40 Weeks Review 17 10 22 - 21 10 22


Dax40. Monday 17 10 22 (on the road - no analysis) ​ ​ ​ Dax40. Tuesday 18 10 2022.(on the road - no analysis) ​ ​ Dax40. Weds 19 10 2022. Pre RTH Kick Off Notes

Overnight Range Similar to yesterdays on range - a strong push up to test yesterdays Hod area and pulling back Data No scheduled data of any real impact slated for today. Overview Good morning compadres - glad to be back at my desk after a few days away. Looks like its been quite eventful after last Thursdays CPI false break to the downside followed by the big up leg and Fridays big down leg. In bear markets we have to expect that the bears aren't just going to capitulate. However it seems the bulls aren't giving up either after Mondays fight back. So.... I guess we should expect more of the same - which is no bad thing for us as we can make money whatever the two opposing forces decide they want to do. With >300 D1 ATR on Dax its a great time to be a day trader. I´m all for buyers and sellers duking it out like a re-run of the Rumble in the Jungle - all we want is for the buy and sell set ups to be pretty clear and looking back over the past few days - they have been. Yesterday we tagged, dropped off (great short scalp entry btw if anyone took it) and re tested above the 50DMA, the first time we have been here since Sept 13th and its now back in our headlights as a clear level/indicator we have to watch as either S or R. Break above and hold - we could get a better run up. If it holds as R then we test lower. At the same time, we have to keep an eye on the S&P (as ever) and it is having a good old scrap of its own between buyers and sellers. From a levels pov on S&P we need to be above and holding 3580 on the index otherwise it looks like there will be more downside to come. On Dax the D1 HTF downside levels of note are 12600 / 650 and 12380 ish the yearly lows prior to the test below down to 11800. The chart looks pretty well defined for my first day back moving zone to zone in a general upwards trend. Todays Trade Plan Looking at yesterdays pa first support comes in at our S1 zone for today around 12750. If we dip back into this area I will take a 1st test long as we had only H1 wicks below 12765 yesterday. Breaking below this zone and holding below opens up our next downside S zone at around 12700 which could also prove to be a good bounce area if the bulls are to keep pushing. Should we break this zone I will take a 1st test long at S3 12600. Any upside break over 12920 - 940 our first R zone of interest I will be watching for a pullback entry to go long. Any clear rejection here I will look to go short. In general it looks to me that we are trying to push upwards but the bear market remains in control on the higher time frames and none of the previous attempts have made much headway after a couple to three days. In which case I´m happy to trade zone to zone up or down and assess at each stage for today. I think also we have to keep a close eye on the S&P as its momentum up or down will lead the Dax. ​ Levels R1 - 13000 - 13020 R2 - 13090 - 13112 R3 - 13175 - 13200 ​ S1 - 12745 - 12765 S2 - 12680 - 12705 S3 - 12600 - 12620 Long Set ups 1st tests at our S zones and breaks above and pullbacks to 12920 - 940 into R1 as a 1st target. ​ Short Set ups Any break and hold below S1 could be significant for shorts given that this area held the lows all day yesterday. Any false break pa at 12940 would be a short opportunity. ​ The US

​​ The S&P has struggled to put in 3 green dailies since it last managed it at the start of September and looks to be having a hard time of it right now. After the break down of its years lows last week and a major reversal up the chart post the CPI print it immediately encountered resistance and the following day reversed all the way back down to retest the break out level at 3585 on the index. For today I´ll be looking to trade the 3665 - 3685 zone as key support on D1. This level / zone holds we could get a run up to test the overnight highs at 3760 ish, possibly higher to 3800 if the bulls have any real strength. A break below here opens up further downside with 3635 providing some support on the way down but better support not coming in until around 3580. ​ From a seasonal point of view we are in a relatively bullish last quarter but whether we get any sustainable rally is not at all clear right now. S&P caouls be balancing for break out leg but it is not clear to me which way! RTH Post Session Review

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Presented with comments on the charts. I made hard work of the trades today with only 2. 1 on Dax as noted and 1 on Spx - again as noted on the chart. Just couldn't get into it today which sometimes happens so no sweat. But I wont ever lie to you and say everything was great - it wasn't. I didn't lose anything but left just about everything on the table - just poor trading - my mind just wasn't firing on all cylinders today - prob just knackered. I´ll have an ice cold shower to kick off tomorrow come out all guns blazing :). ​ Dax40. Thurs 20 10 2022. Pre RTH Kick Off Notes

Overnight Range We drifted lower after the close and tested 12650 which we mentioned yesterday as a good low S for a bounce, based there for a few hours and then got an outlier push up for @80 pts at 5.15am this morning UK time. whether that fast rip is indicative for the RTH I don't know - it looked a bit odd but we will see. However it did fill in the small futs gap from the futs open. Data No scheduled data of any real impact slated for today other than Philly Fed Manuf and US unemployment claims at 13.30 UK. Overview Good morning. Dax again failed yesterday to put in a green D1 candle to get three in a row - a resistant sequence of late which is no surprise given the strong bear market conditions that exist right now. Same thing on the S&P. We are either basing prior to another dominant trend leg or markets are completely indecisive as to what next. Whatever the resolution, up or down, it makes little difference to us as we know where our good S and R levels are and that's where we will launch our trades. For me this is the key element / benefit of day trading - we don't have to think too much about where next - we just follow and hit our runs from pre set inflection / reaction levels. We can leave the nail biting worry to the swing traders - we are in and out and sleep easy each night. Of course we can leave a few runners overnight when pa allows but out stops will always be in profit by that point so we still sleep easily :). ​ So while October usually kicks off the last quarter bull run up to the year end whether it materializes this year or not is not our concern. As long as we aware that seasonally we could get a push upwards we don't need to base any decisions on it - its just colour for the macro environment which btw continues to look pretty grim. Todays Trade Plan Looking at the levels we came down to yesterday and overnight in both Dax and the S&P and the strong thrust candle at 5am this morning we could be in for another attempt to push higher - to print a green D1 today to at least maintain the possibility of a higher rally. On both Dax and S&P we came down to important S levels, 12650 on Dax and @3670 on S&P and have had a bounce as I write. The Dax overnight low was also the halfback of the prior leg as noted on the chart. So I will be looking to trade long from our S1 today @ 12650 - 680. NB: we have a gap left at 12649 which could be tested in the RTH to formally close it. If we break below S1, 650, I´ll be watching for a false break to clear stops like we had yesterday in the first instance. If it looks like being a real break I´ll be on the look out for pullbacks to the zone to go short. Other than this I´ll watch the pa as it unfolds and act accordingly - BUT - only from our zones and levels. There is never any "edge" to "diddling in the middle" - unless you want to scalp for a few points here and there and even then only with extreme care. With ATR on Dax > 300 we need to be looking for good points tallies not 10 scalp points here and there. NB: watch the 50DMA as a potential R zone. Also as the US seems to be in overall change of whether we rally or not be on the look out for what happens in the US session. ​ Levels R1 - 12920 - 12940 R2 - 13000 - 13030 R3 - 13090 - 13112 R4 - 13175 - 13200 S1 - 12650 - 12672 S2 - 12484- 12500 S3 - 12395 - 12415 S4 - 12336 - 12356 ​ ​The US

The US is mirroring the Dax (or perhaps its the other way around :)) in that the S&P has not been able to print 3 consecutive green D1 candles since the beginning of Sept. as mentioned yesterday. However today at least in the futs session it looks to be trying to stay green - we´ll know more whether this comes off in the RTH at the open. Whatever we get we have some clear levels to work with. Given the overnight futs pa S&P needs to hold 3665 the overnight low to build any case to move up. Failure here could see another trip down to 3635 which is important as if it fails then 3580 - 85 is back on the cards and we head lower. If we break up and over 3720 we have a shot at 3760 which is a critical level to the upside if we are going to get anything more from this latest bear market rally. 3800 is my target in which case. Regardless of how we proceed the levels are clear and we can simply watch for the reaction pa and trade accordingly. My preference is to look for longs today and any pullback to the overnight lows at 3665 would be a 1st test long for me. Other than that I will watch what happens at 3720 and 3760 to eithert stay long or consider a short scalp. With D1 ATR at just below 100 scalping is much more of an option that it used to be ! RTH Post Session Review

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​​ ​ Limited opportunity day with very mediocre pa - not much else to add to the comments on the charts (which includes the S&P on the left). ​ Dax40. Friday 21 10 2022. Pre RTH Kick Off Notes

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Overnight Range Limited action with price in a tight 60 pt range as I write. Data Opex day - no other significant data slated Overview The big question is, is this rally done and dusted? If it is are we heading lower or in for a period of ranging prices until something market moving turns up on the data front - perhaps some "good" news on inflation?. With pa on D1 Dax and in the US yesterday the odds have to be on the downside but with Opex today it could be an inconclusive day - at least until we get to the US open. However as you are used to me saying by now - it matters not to us. We will simply trade what prints on our charts and care not about the bigger picture concerns - we can leave that to the swing traders and investors :). And on that note - we have some clear levels to work with. ​ Todays Trade Plan Given that it is Opex and that price action can be a little "tricky" on these days my plan is to stick to the levels and ref points as per and look out for any scalp patterns that may set up - shelf and roof, pcc gap close, pml and pmh fades in particular. We are some way under yesterdays close (@150 pts as I write) so also be aware of any inventory correction moves from the RTH open. There is nothing really in close vicinity to price in the overnight range that suggests an automatic long or short entry for me on any opening pa. I will however be looking at any push up to 12660 - 680 to look for any short opps to get in line with the H1 trend. If we push higher shorts start to look promising from pcc and above at @ 12780 and the index 50DMA. Also note the channel that has formed so watch for any moves to its edges for long of short opps. If anything becomes clearer as the day progresses I will update either on Twitter of here. Levels R1 - 12787 - 12815 (the 50DMA is here) R2 - 12920 - 12940 R3 - 13000 - 13030 ​ S1 - 12484 - 12508 S2 - 12395 - 12415 S3 - 12336 - 12356 (note the gap here) The US

​ The S&P failed to put in a green day yesterday and this rally is looking weaker by the day. My plan today is to watch out for any regular set ups such a fades of pmh & pml - any push up at the open to the pmh would be a better odds fade given the pa so far. We have the same levels as yesterday but with Opex it can often be choppy so as we head into the US session I am not particularly optimistic of getting any clean pa. I will watch the open for an hour - see if anything sets up and if not that´ll be the week over :). ​ RTH Post Session Review

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Yesterday started in fairly typical Opex fashion with limited opportunities and ended with a bang on the news from the WSJ article by Nick Timiraos in which he stated that the Fed are set to debate the the possibility of lower hikes after raising by another 75bps in Nov. This was welcomed by traders and markets with the US posting a strong green day and Dax following suit. Sometimes all it takes is for one person / journalist to publish something and the market is quick to react. Timiraos, it seems to me, has been the "official unofficial" back channel from the Fed for some time now and while the comments made in his WSJ piece have been articulated before by a number of Fed officials - the article itself was all that was needed to spark up the animal spirits of market participants. We will see whether it holds Monday and the following few days. ​ While the opportunities were somewhat limited in Dax there were nevertheless a couple of regular set ups. If anyone missed the short from 12700 after the open we had a pullback to the pml and another to the halfback of the day (lod to hod) later in the session. Both were good scalps for around 50 points. After that we were trading the news as mentioned, and the first regular opp came with a 50% pullback after the initial news spike. This is always the first thing to look for on news spikes. Wait for it to start to come back and pull a fib from the ignition point to the top (or bottom) and look to jump in on the original spike direction once we start to pullback. Usually set ups will form at the 38% and / or the 50% and sometimes a bit lower at the 61.8% fib. Jumping in this pullback at the halfback (my preferred jump in point on Dax) resulted in a 150pt move up to the 50DMA which was a logical target. ​ In the S&P the news clearly drove the action from just before the US open and if you were watching and again waiting for an entry to get on board we had a regular pullback to the pmh in the RTH (which was also in between the halfback and the 61.8 of the move up from the lod to the top of the news spike). Taking a long there was the best trade of the day on S&P as it rallied nearly 100 pts into the close. ​ On Opex days and on both the Dax and S&P the point is not that you caught everything or indeed anything it is that it was a day which provided good education for always being on the look out for regular repetitive type entries - no matter what you may think of Opex days and that it was slow in the lead up to the news. In todays case it was pullback entries on Dax prior to the news and news spike pullbacks afterwards. While the news changed the whole complexion of the day we still had opportunity! The outtake is always go with regular set ups. Its these that pay the bills. ​ ​ ​ ​



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